13/11/2025 - After the setback caused by US tariff policies in spring, sentiment is visibly improving in many regions of the world. This is highlighted in the latest AHK World Business Outlook by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), based on over 3,500 responses from around 90 countries worldwide. While economic expectations for businesses in Germany remain cautious, optimism among German companies at their international locations is rising significantly. “International markets serve as a stabilizing anchor for many companies,” says DIHK’s Head of Foreign Trade, Volker Treier. “They demonstrate their competitiveness there—even though the German location currently offers little support.”

Worldwide, 44% of companies anticipate better business, whereas only 15% feel this way domestically. The recovery remains fragile, but the trajectory is clear: growth occurs beyond Germany’s borders. This is reflected in investment and employment plans as well. Abroad, 29% of companies plan to increase investments, while only 16% are planning cuts. Regarding personnel, 33% intend to expand, compared to 17% considering reductions. Domestically, companies reducing resources outweigh those planning to increase them by far.

Many businesses are responding to changed political and economic conditions by shifting their investment decisions to areas of growing demand, and increasingly to locations where market access is tied to local value creation. This trend is particularly evident in China: Here, only 18% of German companies rate their current situation as good, yet more than a quarter (26%) plan to expand investments—significantly more than in the spring. This move aims not only to comply with local production-linked market access but also to leverage China's substantial innovation power and access to resources for positioning their companies in global competition.

At the same time, risks in international business are increasing. Nearly every second company (48%) cites economic-political conditions as a business risk, with 47% complaining about weak demand. Furthermore, exchange rate risks (31%) and new trade barriers (25%) are rising. “International division of labor is no longer a given. Market access increasingly has to be politically secured—those bearing excessive costs or facing regulatory hurdles lose market share. The global economy is seeking a new balance, but this ‘new normal’ acts against us initially: Global markets are politically shaped rather than naturally open. Those failing to secure their competitiveness will be pushed out.”

US trade policies continue to be globally impactful. The initial uncertainty among businesses over erratic, burdensome measures from Washington has given way to a phase of sobering adaptation. 44% of German firms at their international locations report negative or severely negative effects—from tariffs to export controls and local-content requirements. While German companies’ willingness to invest globally has recovered following the tariff shock in the spring, a global investment boom has not materialized. This particularly affects German companies’ investment plans in the USA itself. These plans remain below the international average and significantly lower than a year ago: While currently just 24% plan additional investments in the USA, 37% of companies planned for them in autumn 2024.

The weak economic dynamics in Germany directly negatively affect export expectations. After three years of decline, the DIHK anticipates a further 1% decrease for 2025. Only by 2026 is a slight increase of 0.5% expected. Germany's benefit from global growth remains limited.

Treier calls for decisive political action: “The rules of global trade are being rewritten. Those failing to secure market access through robust trade agreements or remaining structurally too costly will lose out. This isn’t about isolation but about connectivity. Germany and Europe must strategically enhance businesses’ competitiveness: through reliable energy prices, faster procedures, tax reliefs, and new trade agreements. Only then can our companies participate in global growth again—and shape it, instead of falling behind.”