04.06.2025 - Aggressive US trade policies under President Trump have left significant scars: German companies in the United States are facing a much more pessimistic future. This is highlighted by the latest special evaluation of the AHK World Business Outlook (WBO) by the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK). The evaluation is based on a global survey conducted by the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad with the participation of over 4,600 companies in the spring of 2025, including more than 100 with locations in the USA. The survey took place between mid-March and mid-April, amid escalating trade policy turbulence between the US and its partners. “What we are witnessing is a zigzag policy by the US government, which fosters uncertainty, hampers investments, and unsettles even long-established companies,” says Volker Treier, DIHK's Head of Foreign Trade.

Against this backdrop, the upcoming trip of Chancellor Friedrich Merz to Washington sends an important signal for dialogue and mutual understanding. In light of the tense trade policy situation, it is now crucial to send clear messages of de-escalation. Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs create no winners – they undermine trust, make products more expensive, and weaken competitiveness on both sides of the Atlantic.

Companies Anticipate Significant Deterioration

Only 14% of the surveyed German companies in the US expect an economic improvement over the next twelve months – in autumn 2024, this figure was still 38%. Meanwhile, 44% of companies currently foresee an economic downturn – a sixfold increase compared to the previous survey (7%). The picture has turned 180 degrees. Where hope once prevailed, disillusionment now dominates. The downward trend is also evident in business expectations: only one-third of the companies forecast positive business developments, while around a quarter anticipate a decline.

The primary reason: increasingly unpredictable US trade policies. Since March, Washington has been inundated with announcements of new tariffs – on steel, aluminium, cars, and eventually on a wide range of EU imports. Although some measures were temporarily suspended, the fundamental challenge remains: uncertainty.

“What companies miss today is reliability. Erratic announcements and retractions of tariffs stifle investment decisions and raise fundamental questions about the future of the US as a business location,” says Treier.

Investment Plans Heavily Impacted

The uncertainty is particularly evident in the investment readiness of German companies on-site. Only 24% of German companies in the US are currently planning to expand their investments locally – compared to 37% in autumn 2024. At the same time, 29% now report plans to scale back investments – previously, this figure was just 18%.

“US trade policies aim to attract industry and jobs domestically. However, it is achieving the opposite – it is driving away capital and trust,” explains Treier. Investments are being postponed, and other markets are increasingly being considered.

Risks Rising – Trade Policy Uncertainty Surpasses Classical Location Factors as Key Issue

The protectionist course under Trump 2.0 has significantly shifted the risk landscape for German companies in the US. Previously, classical location factors like skilled labor shortages or infrastructure were dominant, but today trade policy uncertainties are clearly at the forefront. Two-thirds of companies (70%) see the economic policy framework as one of the biggest business risks – up from 46% in autumn 2024.

Trade barriers have also significantly increased: 71% of companies report disadvantages due to the preferential treatment of domestic suppliers – a drastic surge compared to only 21% in the previous year. This highlights a shift: structural factors no longer primarily determine conditions but rather political interventions and protectionist measures. “The relevance of classical location factors is increasingly taking a back seat – today, trade policy hurdles represent the primary challenges,” says DIHK's Volker Treier. “Political risks have become the central business reality.”

Further developments also strain operations: 41% of companies now report disrupted supply chains – compared to only 16% in autumn 2024. Legal uncertainty is also cited as a risk factor more often – now by 21% of respondents, nearly quadrupling from autumn 2024.

US Policy With Global Impact

The repercussions of US trade policies are not merely a bilateral issue: globally, 60% of German companies abroad expect negative impacts from Washington’s current course.

The outlook is similarly bleak: over 80% of German companies operating in the US view trade barriers and conflicts as one of the biggest challenges for the next five years. Of these, nearly all (97%) explicitly cite tariffs and retaliatory tariffs as central issues, 63% are additionally concerned about political interventions in supply chains, and 21% about subsidies and discriminatory industrial policies. Clearly, the US’s trade policy orientation is likely to remain a significant problem for German companies active in the US for the foreseeable future.

Utilising Negotiations – Securing the USA as an Operational Base

Although the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” on EU imports are currently suspended – the deadline is looming: if no agreement between the US and the EU is reached by July 9th, the measures will be reinstated. Additionally, sectoral tariffs on steel and aluminium and their derivatives, as well as on cars and car parts, remain a major concern for German businesses.

“There is an urgent need for constructive and comprehensive negotiations – not just on tariffs but on the overall economic policy direction,” demands Treier. “Only with a reliable framework will the US market remain attractive for German companies.”