Background and purpose of the study

With its proposal to reduce emissions by 90 percent by 2040, the European Commission sets an ambitious intermediate point on the way to climate neutrality by 2050. Against this backdrop, the DIHK together with VKU analyzed whether the trajectory is feasible under current conditions and how realistic the assumptions were.

The study shows: The proposed target corridor is based on prerequisites that are not currently available nationwide. This includes extensively expanded infrastructure, a broad range of market-ready technologies, sufficient skilled labor capacities, and stable investment and financing conditions. In several of these areas, there are significant bottlenecks that make implementation difficult.

Why the 2040 target is currently hardly achievable

The analysis identifies a number of structural challenges. For example, key technologies – such as in the hydrogen economy, CO₂ capture or electrified processes – are not yet available or economical on an industrial scale in many areas. At the same time, network expansion and the expansion of renewable energies are not progressing at the speed required for comprehensive electrification of the economy.

Even the existing EU target for 2030, to cut emissions by 55 percent compared to 1990, is considered endangered in many member states. Closing the gap requires significant investment and structural adjustments. An even more ambitious target for 2040 would further exacerbate these challenges.

Additionally, sectors like transport, buildings, and municipal infrastructure have long renewal cycles. Here, profound transformations are needed, whose implementation requires time, planning security, and financial leeway. Under current conditions, therefore, a tightening of the target is unrealistic.

Risks for the economy, municipalities, and security of supply

A binding 2040 target without adequate preparation could trigger significant economic and structural burdens. Companies – particularly energy-intensive industries – would be confronted with significantly rising costs and uncertain planning situations. This could curb investment or lead to relocations.

Municipal companies also face major transformation tasks. Without stable framework conditions, especially smaller municipalities come under pressure as they have to make high investments in energy, water, waste, and transport infrastructures. Overburdening would not only endanger the local economy but also supply security.

In addition, social and political tensions are looming if climate protection measures are perceived as economically or socially unbalanced. Realistic and sustainable climate policy is therefore also a contribution to societal stability.

What, according to DIHK and VKU, is necessary now

The DIHK and VKU recommend initially focusing on the consistent implementation of the existing 2030 targets. Reliable framework conditions, accelerated approval procedures, technology-neutral approaches, and additional investment incentives are needed for this.

A tightening of the target trajectory should only be done if key prerequisites are met: efficient networks, available technologies, adequate investment and skilled labor capacities, and stable supply structures. Without these foundations, tightening the target could do more harm than good.

For successful climate policy, it is crucial to consider economic resilience and climate protection together. Realistic timelines and market-based mechanisms can help shape ambitious but achievable goals.

Realistic climate policy needs reliable framework conditions

The proposed 2040 trajectory is hardly achievable under the current technological, infrastructural, and economic framework. The analysis shows that the 2030 target remains challenging. Further tightening of the target without feasible implementation perspectives would significantly burden industry, municipalities, and public services.

The formulation of ever higher climate goals is deeply unsettling in the broader economy.

Successful climate protection therefore requires planning security, economically sustainable framework conditions, and realistic timelines. Only when key prerequisites – such as functioning network expansion, available technologies, sufficient investment scopes, and robust supply systems – are ensured, the EU can review whether more ambitious targets are feasible and socially balanced.

Download

Here you will find the German full version of the study (only available in German) for download on the VKU website.