More than 23,000 companies across nearly all industries and regions participated in the survey. While an economic recovery seemed to be on the horizon at the start of 2026, the current answers extinguish this hope: From expectations to employment plans, all indicators are pointing downwards. The DIHK Sentiment Index, which combines the current economic situation and expectations as a geometric mean, has fallen from 95.9 points to now only 88.1 points.

Current Economic Situation

The mood among Germany's companies has broadly worsened in early summer 2026. 26 percent of enterprises reported a bad business situation, while only 23 percent reported a good situation. The balance drops below the zero line for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching minus 3 points—far below the long-term average of plus 19 points.

The situation is particularly dramatic in trade: Here, the balance falls to minus 21 points (previously minus 14 points). Among service providers, the assessment remains just barely positive with a balance of plus 3 points, though it has significantly worsened.

Business Expectations

Expectations for the future have massively darkened. 33 percent of companies anticipate worse business conditions over the next 12 months, while only 13 percent foresee improvements. The business expectations balance drops by 11 points to minus 20 points—22 points lower than the long-term average.

Trade is the most pessimistic regarding future prospects (balance: minus 31 points). In industry (balance: minus 16 points), expectations are somewhat less bleak than in other sectors, though the drop compared to the previous survey is particularly sharp at minus 12 points.

Business Risks

The Middle East conflict brings new risks to the forefront. Business risk concerning energy and raw material prices jumps from 48 to 70 percent, making it the top perceived risk and nearing the absolute peak recorded during the energy price crisis following Russia's attack on Ukraine (82 percent in autumn 2022).

At the same time, structural risks remain significant: Labour costs (57 percent after previously 59 percent) and domestic demand (56 percent after 59 percent) only slightly lose importance; meanwhile, 58 percent of respondents continue to name economic policy conditions as a risk.

On average, a company currently identifies 3.1 risks simultaneously—a figure close to the peak of 3.2 in autumn 2022.

Export Expectations from Industrial Enterprises

Initial signs of an export recovery earlier this year have been thwarted by the Middle East shock: 29 percent of industrial enterprises now expect declining exports, while only 19 percent forecast increases. The balance drops from 0 to minus 10 points. The rubber and plastics industry is particularly hit (balance: minus 15 points). Exceptions are the pharmaceutical industry (balance: plus 16 points) and automotive manufacturing, where consolidation efforts are showing initial results (balance: 0 points).

Investment Intentions

Under these circumstances, 34 percent of companies (previously 31 percent) plan to reduce their investment budgets, while only 23 percent intend to invest. The balance drops from minus 8 to minus 11 points. Investment plans have consistently been negative since autumn 2023.

The focus is on maintaining substance rather than growth: The primary investment motive remains replacement needs—at 67 percent, an all-time high. Capacity expansion plans are at just 19 percent of enterprises—the lowest level recorded since the financial crisis in autumn 2009 (then 16 percent).

Employment Intentions

No turnaround in employment trends is in sight either. 24 percent of enterprises anticipate staff reductions, while only 10 percent plan to make hires. The balance drops to minus 14 points—the lowest value since the pandemic. The hardest-hit sectors are industry (minus 20 points) and trade (minus 20 points).

This temporary decline in demand for labour somewhat alleviates the skills shortage as a risk factor: Only 36 percent of companies currently report qualified personnel availability as an issue (long-term average: 45 percent)—reflecting the weakened demand for labour.

DIHK Forecast

The DIHK downgrades its growth expectation for 2026 to 0.3 percent. According to its assessment, the federal government must now set the right priorities and implement bold reforms. Only with relief, bureaucracy reduction, and acceleration will the economy return to a sustainable growth path with secure jobs, increased competitiveness, and growing prosperity. 

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Economic Survey Early Summer 2026 (PDF, 9 MB)