The conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are significantly affecting German companies at their international locations. Over 4,500 companies active abroad participated in the survey conducted by the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHKs) in Spring 2026 – with sobering results: Economic expectations are falling sharply into negative territory. Energy prices are soaring, supply chains are disrupted, and demand remains uncertain.
"Hopes for an economic recovery have been dashed. The war in the Middle East once again demonstrates how vulnerable globally interconnected value chains are."
Dr. Volker Treier
-- Chief of Foreign Trade | Member of the Executive Board
Companies are reacting with caution: Investments are being cut, and personnel planning has become more cautious. At the same time, businesses are adjusting their strategies, increasingly focusing on diversifying suppliers, developing new markets, and enhancing local production.
Key results at a glance
Economic expectations
- 21 per cent of businesses anticipate better economic conditions (Autumn 2025: 26 per cent)
- 32 per cent foresee a downturn (Autumn 2025: 24 per cent)
- The balance between positive and negative expectations decreases from plus 2 to minus 11 points, noticeably below the average value of plus 1 point
Business situation
- 39 per cent of businesses assess their business situation as good, while 13 per cent consider it poor
- The balance between positive and negative assessments rises from 25 to 26 points
- The current business situation remains below the long-term average (33 points)
Business expectations
- 43 per cent anticipate better business prospects (Autumn 2025: 44 per cent)
- 15 per cent expect a deterioration (Autumn 2025: 10 per cent)
- The balance between positive and negative expectations drops from 34 to 28 points, falling below the long-term average of 33 points
Business risks (multiple responses possible)
- 46 per cent cite high energy prices (Autumn 2025: 19 per cent, long-term average: 30 per cent)
- 44 per cent perceive demand-related risks (Autumn 2025: 47 per cent)
- 40 per cent are concerned about supply chain disruptions (Autumn 2025: 20 per cent) - doubled
- 37 per cent cite rising raw material prices (Autumn 2025: 21 per cent)
Investment intentions
- 31 per cent plan higher investments (Autumn 2025: 29 per cent)
- 22 per cent want to reduce capital deployment (Autumn 2025: 16 per cent)
- The balance decreases from 13 to 9 points, falling below the long-term average (14 points)
Employment intentions
- 31 per cent plan to increase their workforce
- 16 per cent anticipate a reduction
- The balance between increasing and decreasing employment intentions slightly worsens from 16 to 15 points, remaining below the long-term average of 21 points
Situation Improves Slightly, Outlook Dimmed
In current circumstances, only 21% of companies anticipate better economic development at their international locations over the next 12 months, while 32% foresee a deterioration.
The latest figures also reveal that the economic consequences of the Middle East conflict have not yet fully materialised everywhere. Currently, 39% of companies rate their situation as good, 48% as satisfactory, and 13% as poor. Compared to the previous survey in autumn, the overall situation assessment has not worsened and has even slightly improved.
Who Is Particularly Affected?
Company expectations vary significantly by region: Businesses in China, the USA, or Mercosur countries are comparatively optimistic about the next 12 months, while prospects in Asia and the Middle East are much more subdued.
Europe and Asia Under Pressure
Eurozone: Only 12% of companies expect better economic prospects, while 34% predict a decline. Italy is particularly affected, as the country sources 35% of its natural gas imports from the Gulf region.
Asia-Pacific (excluding China): 35% of companies are pessimistic. Countries like Sri Lanka, Vietnam, South Korea, and India face high energy import dependency. In Vietnam, 80% of companies view supply chain disruptions as a business risk.
USA: Cautious Optimism
Despite being a net oil exporter, the USA's economic outlook remains negative (minus 6 balance points). Trade policy uncertainties and its role as a conflict party in the Middle East weigh heavily. However, German companies are expanding their US locations to benefit from "local for local" production.
China: Resilient, but Export-Dependent
China appears relatively stable. Diversified oil imports, strategic reserves, and deflationary tendencies are cushioning short-term price shocks. Nonetheless, high export dependency remains a risk. Economic expectations stand at 2 balance points (Autumn 2025: minus 25 points).
South and Central America: A Bright Spot Thanks to Mercosur Agreement
10 balance points in economic expectations – the region benefits from its geographical distance from the Gulf region, its own oil reserves, and the Mercosur agreement. 33% of companies expect improvements, while only 23% foresee a decline.
Gulf Region: Business conditions are deteriorating
In the United Arab Emirates, the situation rating has plummeted from 60 to 8 balance points. Investment intentions: minus 16 points (Autumn 2025: plus 30 points). Security risks are hampering employee deployments.
Top Risk: Energy Prices
Amid the Middle East conflict, energy prices have become a top business risk: 46% of companies are worried about the price development of oil, gas, etc. – more than twice as many as in the previous survey. Demand (44%) and economic policy (42%) rank second and third among business risks, with slightly fewer mentions than in Autumn 2025. However, companies are significantly more concerned about supply chain disruptions (40%) and rising raw material prices (37%) than before.
How Companies Are Counteracting
Firms are responding to increasing geopolitical challenges with measures to strengthen their resilience. Two-thirds are expanding their supplier networks or planning to do so. 76% are focusing on developing new international locations, and 46% report increased local investments.
Downloads
In addition to the complete report available in English, the statistical appendix can also be found here:
AHK WBO Spring 2026 (PDF, 2 MB)
Statistical Appendix (PDF, 2 MB) (only available in German)
- Relevant in topic:
- Internationaler Handel
- Key areas:
-
- Außenwirtschaft
Released 05.05.2026
Modified 05.06.2026
Contact
Lola Marie Machleid
Director International Economy
