Current Business Situation

In Autumn 2025, the business situation of German companies worldwide remains challenging. For over a year now, the economy has been operating at a low level without visible signs of sustainable recovery. Challenges such as high energy and labor costs, lengthy approval procedures, and bureaucratic hurdles continue to impede the competitiveness of many companies. Despite the new government's political initiatives, no noticeable improvement in real business conditions has been observed. Unchanged, only 25% of companies describe their current business situation as 'good', while another 25% view their situation as 'poor'. The balance of assessments remains at zero points and is significantly below the long-term average of plus 19 points.

The mood remains subdued, especially in the industry and trade sectors. Large companies with more than 1,000 employees report a slight decline in their situation evaluation, and small and medium-sized enterprises are also affected by challenging market conditions. Weak domestic and foreign demand and geopolitical tensions negatively impact the business situation, most notably in industrial sectors.

Business Expectations

Business expectations of German companies continue to be marked by pessimism. Only 15% of companies anticipate improved business conditions over the next twelve months, while more than a quarter (27%) expect a deterioration. The expectation balance drops compared to early summer to minus 12 points, significantly below the long-term average of three points. Although the balance has improved by six points compared to the previous year, the overall outlook remains negative.

In the industry in particular, demand remains weak, and structural problems such as high costs and geopolitical uncertainties dampen expectations. Small companies with fewer than 200 employees are especially impacted by difficult market conditions, whereas larger companies with more than 1,000 employees appear slightly more optimistic about the future.

Business Risks

Companies face a multitude of risks complicating economic activity. The greatest risks include domestic demand (57%) and economic policy conditions (56%). The persistently weak demand from both domestic and foreign markets remains a central challenge. Additionally, rising labor costs represent another major risk for 56% of companies, particularly in labor-intensive industries.

Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, risks have increased further. Many sectors are struggling with high energy and raw material prices, as well as uncertainties in trade policies. The skilled labor shortage remains a significant issue, especially in the construction industry and other labor-intensive sectors.

Export Expectations of Industrial Companies

The export expectations of German industrial companies remain negative in Autumn 2025. Global competitive pressures, coupled with geopolitical tensions and uncertainties stemming from US trade policies, weigh on export prospects. 29% of companies expect declining exports, while only 19% anticipate growth. The export expectations balance remains at minus 10 points, slightly improved compared to last year's minus 12 points, but still significantly below the long-term average of plus 14 points.

Export-driven companies face particular challenges with insufficient competitiveness and difficult conditions in international markets. Larger firms with more than 1,000 employees are comparatively more optimistic, expecting export growth as they are better equipped to adapt to new trade conditions.

Investment Plans

The investment willingness of German companies remains restrained in Autumn 2025. Only 22% of companies plan to increase their investments, while 31% intend to decrease expenditures. The investment balance slightly drops to minus nine points compared to early summer (balance: minus seven points). Uncertainties in economic conditions and weak domestic and foreign demand suppress investment willingness.

Investment plans are particularly conservative in the industrial sector, where companies mainly pursue replacement and rationalization investments. Investments aimed at expanding production capacity are rare. Environmental protection investments are also on the decline, reflecting the generally cautious attitude of companies toward future expenditures.

Employment Plans 

The persistent economic weakness and gloomy business expectations negatively impact companies' employment plans. Only 11% of companies are planning to expand their workforce, while 24% anticipate reductions. The employment plans balance drops to minus 13 points, the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. This trend is especially noticeable in the industrial sector, where the balance has fallen to minus 21 points. Uncertainty and declining production demand contribute to this development.

High labor costs, particularly in labor-intensive industries, and the skilled labor shortage pose major challenges for many companies. Despite the skilled labor shortage in certain sectors like construction, companies remain cautious about new hires.

DIHK Forecast 

DIHK predicts weak economic growth of only 0.7% for 2025. Structural challenges, geopolitical uncertainties, and high energy and labor costs continue to impact overall economic development. The economy shows no signs of a quick recovery, and uncertainties about global economic performance and the effects of US trade policies and trade tensions remain high. DIHK expects economic stagnation for the current year and very moderate growth for the coming year.

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DIHK Economic Survey Autumn 2025 (only available in German) (PDF, 1 MB)

Statistical Appendix DIHK Economic Survey Autumn 2025 (only available in German) (PDF, 1 MB)

Time Series DIHK Economic Survey Autumn 2025 (only available in German) (XLSX, 95 KB)