17.02.2026 - "The growing global economy and increased government expenditures, for example for security and defence, provide slight impetus to individual sectors. However, broadly speaking, little of this is felt,” said DIHK Chief Executive Officer Helena Melnikov during the presentation of the survey results in Berlin. "Especially in times when the world economy is fundamentally reorganising, this is worrying. The international competition is becoming fiercer. We need to make substantially greater efforts to maintain our position."

Only a quarter of businesses rate their economic situation at the start of the year as good, while another quarter considers it poor. Despite the announced reforms by the government, the outlook remains only slightly more optimistic than last autumn: One in four companies anticipates a deterioration in the economic situation. The DIHK Sentiment Index – an average of the assessment of the economic situation and business expectations – increased slightly by two points. However, at 95.9 points, it remains well below the long-term average of 110 points.

"Based on these figures, we anticipate weak growth of one percent in 2026, largely driven by statistical and calendar effects," Melnikov explained. "This is inadequate. Our competitors are more dynamic." Since 2019, the global economy has grown by 19 percent, the economy in the USA by 15 percent, and in Italy by at least 6 percent. "Only in Germany are we stagnating with 0.2 percent since 2019," according to Melnikov. "To secure our prosperity, we must now consistently work on location factors."

The survey highlights structural burdens. Companies cite not only economic risks such as weak domestic demand (59 percent) as business risks. They also feel the burden of structural factors such as rising labour costs (59 percent), uncertain economic policy frameworks (58 percent), and high energy and raw material prices (48 percent).

"The government has announced reform and relief packages, but they have hardly been felt in the companies yet. With the handbrake on, we won’t get out of the valley," said Melnikov. "We need to shift up two gears now and increase speed: reduce bureaucracy, reduce labour and energy costs, make rules reliable. This builds trust and unlocks investments."

Currently, less than one in four businesses (23 percent) is planning higher investments, while almost one in three (31 percent) intends to cut them. "This is insufficient to close the existing gap: Private investments are 11 percent below the pre-COVID levels," said Melnikov. Investments are primarily focussed on replacements (66 percent) and rationalisation (34 percent), while innovations and capacity expansions continue to play a subsidiary role.

In the labour market, companies remain cautious: A quarter of businesses (23 percent) expect employee numbers to decline, while only twelve percent plan to increase their workforce. "Poor employment plans also burden the labour market. For the first time in eleven years, more than three million people are registered as unemployed. A swift trend reversal is unlikely based on the current personnel plans," Melnikov stated.

There is some hope from export expectations: Despite trade policy turmoil, 22 percent of companies anticipate increased exports in the next twelve months – three percentage points higher than last autumn. Likewise, 22 percent expect a decline. Previously, this figure stood at 29 percent.

"The EU's efforts for more free trade agreements are providing some optimism in the export industry," explained Melnikov. "However, the competitive pressure is high, and uncertainties remain significant. In this challenging international environment, the government must act urgently. For agreements to genuinely help, Germany needs an attractive and efficient location. It's time to move away from small-scale reforms. 2026 must be the year of genuine reforms."

The survey results are available here for download:

DIHK Economic Survey at the beginning of 2026 (PDF, 10 MB)