Key Results
- Current Business Situation: The business situation improves only marginally compared to the previous survey in autumn 2025: Only 25% of businesses rate their current business situation as "good", 24% as "poor". The balance improves by one point from 0 to 1 point.
- Business Expectations: Despite slight brightening, business expectations remain predominantly gloomy. Only 16% of companies anticipate better business in the next twelve months, while 25% expect worse business. The balance of business expectations improves slightly by 3 points to minus 9 compared to autumn.
- Business Risks: The most frequently mentioned business risks are labor costs (59%, record level) and domestic demand (58%), followed by economic policy conditions (58%).
- Export Expectations: Export expectations for the next twelve months are stabilizing: 22% of companies anticipate a decrease in exports, and the same number expect an increase. The balance climbs from minus 10 to 0 points.
- Investment Intentions: Investment intentions of domestic businesses remain very restrained. Only 23% plan increased budgets, while 31% intend to reduce their investments. The resulting balance of minus 8 points represents only a slight improvement compared to autumn (minus 9 points).
- Employment Intentions: The ongoing economic weakness is already impacting employment plans. 12% of businesses intend to expand their workforce, while 23% foresee a decline. The balance stands at minus 11 points, slightly higher than in the previous survey (minus 13 points).
Current Business Situation
The mood among companies remains tense at the start of 2026. Three years without economic growth have taken their toll on businesses. Added to this are unresolved structural issues domestically as well as global economic uncertainties and conflicts, which have severely impacted the export-focused German economy. Consequently, the business situation of companies shows only slight improvement. Only 25% of businesses rate their situation as "good," while 24% consider it "bad." The balance of "good" and "bad" assessments increases slightly to plus 1 point (Autumn 2025: 0 points), but still falls considerably short of the long-term average of plus 19 points. Business conditions in the trade sector remain challenging; the situation among service providers has stabilized somewhat.
Business Expectations
Business expectations remain predominantly negative. Only 16% of companies anticipate improving business conditions, while 25% foresee a decline. The corresponding balance is minus 9 points, signaling a slight brightening compared to the previous survey (minus 12 points); however, the long-term average of plus 3 points remains far out of reach. The manufacturing sector is slightly more optimistic, whereas expectations in trade remain gloomy.
Business Risks
Businesses continue to face numerous risks – the DIHK Risk Indicator remains at 2.99 for the overall economy (3.37 for the industry sector), significantly above the average of 2.56 (Industry: 2.85).
The weighting of issues shifts slightly: 59% of companies (Autumn 2025: 56%) cite labor costs as a risk, reaching a peak and ranking equal with the previous frontrunner, domestic demand. Economic policy conditions rise slightly in the risk ranking from 57% to 58%, while mentions of energy and raw material prices decrease marginally from 49% to 48%. Among energy-intensive companies, however, this aspect remains highly concerning at 68%. Foreign demand is viewed more positively compared to Autumn – its impact is seen as a risk by 44% of businesses in the export industry (down from 48%). Similarly, the shortage of skilled workers loses significance in the context of the weak economic outlook (40%, down from 44%). In open-text responses, bureaucracy (45%) ranks highest, followed by taxes (13%).
Export Expectations of Manufacturing Companies
Export prospects stabilize slightly at the start of the year. The share of businesses expecting rising exports increases to 22%, while an equal proportion anticipates declining exports. The balance improves from minus 10 to 0 points. Optimistic export expectations are particularly noted in the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, while the automotive industry continues to report weak outlooks.
Investment Plans
Given subdued future prospects, businesses remain cautious with their investment plans. Only 23% of companies plan higher investments, while 31% have to reduce them. The balance stands at minus 8 points, up from minus 9 points in Autumn 2025.
Among investment motives, replacement needs (66%, down from 67% in the previous survey) and rationalization (34%, up from 33% in Autumn) remain dominant. Capacity expansion motives decrease significantly, from 25% to 19%.
Employment Plans
Businesses' employment plans also reflect cautious expectations: 12% of companies intend to hire staff, while 23% foresee downsizing. The balance stands at minus 11 points. Employment plans in the manufacturing sector are particularly poor, with hiring and layoff plans balancing at minus 18 points. The service sector fares somewhat better with a balance of minus 7 points.
DIHK Forecast
"We expect weak growth of one percent in 2026, largely attributable to statistical and calendar effects. This is too little; our competitors are more dynamic."
Dr. Helena Melnikov
-- Chief Executive Officer
DIHK anticipates weak economic growth of 1.0% for 2026. Structural challenges and weak demand remain key issues. Positive momentum could come from international trade agreements and strong global economic growth – provided that Germany becomes more attractive and efficient through bold reforms.
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- Relevant in topic:
- Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik
- Key areas:
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- Konjunktur
- Beschäftigung
- Wachstum
- Industrie
Released 17.02.2026
Modified 07.04.2026
Contact
Dr. Jupp Zenzen
Director Economic Analysis, Business Surveys
