The analysis is based on 114 responses from German businesses, branches, and subsidiaries with activities in the United States. It shows: After a phase of great uncertainty at the beginning of the year, sentiment in the USA remains tense, but German businesses on site are cautiously optimistic again and hope for an economic recovery.

At the same time, companies are beginning to adapt to the 'New Normal' and the more complicated trade conditions, reorienting their trading strategies. Recent agreements between the USA, the EU, and other partners certainly increase transparency, but the burdens imposed by tariffs, export controls, and market access barriers remain significant. Businesses that react flexibly and strengthen local value-added processes can still leverage opportunities in the US market.

Current Business Situation

Economic expectations have improved compared to spring 2025 but remain overall negative. A quarter of businesses expect an improvement, while 28% foresee a worsening of the economy. The primary challenge for German businesses on site remains adapting to the 'New Normal' following the customs shock earlier in the spring.

The assessment of their current business situation is worse than in the spring: only 40% describe their situation as good (spring: 51%).

Trade Policy Creates Uncertainty

The US trade policy remains the central uncertainty factor for businesses on site. Despite new bilateral agreements between the United States and the EU along with other trading partners, three-quarters of businesses in the USA report negative impacts – much more than the global average (60%).

Tariffs are cited by three-quarters of companies as the most influential aspect of US economic policy on their business. This is significantly more than the global comparison (66%), primarily due to the direct impact on businesses via internationally interconnected supply chains.

On-site companies directly experience the location policy of the USA, which affects nearly a third of respondents, again higher than the global average (19%). Despite improved tax incentives following the so-called 'One Big Beautiful Bill', the elimination of investment incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act puts pressure on businesses in the USA.

‘Buy American’ and Other Hurdles

Provisions like 'Buy American', as well as deviating technical standards and product requirements, burden the local industrial policy for a fifth of on-site companies (worldwide: 16%). Additionally, 13% of companies identify export controls as factors impacting their local business operations. These can deeply affect operational processes, particularly through strict guidelines on technology exports, supply chains, and complex compliance requirements.

Economic policy frameworks are cited as a business risk in the USA by more than two-thirds of companies, making it the most frequently mentioned. Over half of respondents see trade barriers as a burden. The role of the US dollar as a leading currency and its significance in global trade has worldwide ramifications. Structural risks, such as a shortage of skilled workers and rising labour costs, are also gaining prominence again.

Improved Business Expectations

Brightened economic prospects also improve the expectations for businesses on site: While a quarter of respondents were still pessimistic in the spring, this figure has now dropped to just 13%. Nonetheless, the outlook remains significantly below the average levels of previous years.

The investment willingness of on-site businesses has also slightly brightened since spring. Expansive investment plans are now slightly dominant again, although they remain below the global average and far from the usual high levels in the USA. Similarly, employment plans are cautiously recovering but remain well below the long-term average.

Downloads

The complete analysis can be found here:

AHK World Business Outlook Autumn 2025: Special Analysis USA (PDF, 1 MB)