The business situation of German companies in the USA has noticeably stabilized since the low point in autumn 2025. Forty-three percent of respondents report a good situation (balance: 31 points), up from 39 percent the previous year. Business expectations for the next twelve months have also brightened significantly: forty-six percent of respondents are optimistic, compared to only 31 percent in autumn 2025.

Nevertheless, both values remain below the long-term average for USA locations. The perspective on overall economic development remains bleak: only 24 percent of companies expect an economic improvement locally, while 30 percent foresee deterioration. The balance of economic expectations is minus 6 points.

"Die US-Zollpolitik wirkt längst wie ein globales Umlenkungsprogramm für Investitionen und Handelsströme."

Custom Bureaucracy Costs Time and Money

The U.S. tariff policy not only impacts prices and supply chains – it also generates significant administrative overhead. Fifty-nine percent of German companies in the USA estimate this burden to be moderate or even substantial. Nine percent have already had to create additional positions or hire external consultants.

The regulations regarding steel and aluminum tariffs are particularly complex. While recent adjustments in this area have slightly reduced bureaucracy costs – new calculation rules have increased actual tariff costs for many companies. Furthermore, ongoing proof-of-origin requirements for used steel and aluminum persist.

Reactions Also Affect U.S. Consumers

German companies are responding to the Trump administration's tariff policy with a broad array of strategic measures – pragmatically implemented. The clearest signal: more than two-thirds (68 percent) are increasing their prices to compensate for rising import costs. The tariff burden is thus predominantly passed on to U.S. consumers.

In parallel, companies are intensifying local value creation: around 40 percent are shifting their supply chains towards local sources. Almost one-third (32 percent) follow the principle "local for local" – producing in the USA for the U.S. market. Only eight percent plan to reduce their U.S. engagement; no company is considering a full withdrawal.

U.S Trade Policy With Worldwide Effects

Slightly more than half of the German companies surveyed worldwide (51 percent) within the AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026 operate in the USA. The trade policy of the USA affects companies at their international locations worldwide. Despite the verdict by the U.S. Supreme Court in February declaring a central part of the Trump administration's current tariff regime unlawful, numerous tariffs persist. Simultaneously, new levies threaten. 

As a result, every second U.S.-active company is scaling down its U.S. business or aligning towards other markets. Fourteen percent of these companies reduce their U.S. business, 18 percent focus more on their domestic and established markets, 15 percent turn their attention to new alternative sales markets and diversify their business activities. Thirty-nine percent of companies with U.S. business make no strategic changes; only 11 percent aim to expand their activities in the USA.

Downloads

The complete survey results are available here in German and English: 

AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026: Special Analysis USA (only available in German) (PDF, 943 KB)

AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026: Special Analysis USA (PDF, 939 KB)