Reaktion von Volker Treier

Rate pause is the right decision, we need to await further developments

DIHK Chief Analyst Volker Treier on the ECB's interest rate decision in July 2026

23.07.2026 - 'A rate pause is the right decision by the ECB. Another rate hike, given the slightly decreased inflation rates in the eurozone and the still weak second-round effects on prices, would even be inappropriate. The price-dampening effects of the June hike are only kicking in with a delay. At the same time, the recent escalation in the Middle East is again increasing pressure on energy prices.

The German economy is in a difficult situation due to the still significant geoeconomic uncertainties and economic policy challenges. Every interest rate decision impacts prices, interest rates, exchange rates, and ultimately investments at German and European locations. In this fragile situation, an early hike in key interest rates could lead to undesired dampening effects on the economy, which we can do without at the moment. After all, the federal government has just initiated reform measures that, if implemented swiftly and decisively, can somewhat improve the economic framework conditions. In this sense, the ECB's cautious approach is the right course of action.'

 

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Sven Ehling

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