The presentation for the keynote is available here as a non-accessible PDF download. (only available in German).

From Stability to Resilience

Markus Brunnermeier, Professor at Princeton University and Director of the Bendheim Center for Finance, started with a sober diagnosis: the old world order – rule-based, multilateral, with the US as the guarantor of sea routes and security – is over. It is being replaced by a transactional, bilateral world with growing US-China rivalry. Germany must learn to navigate in this disorder – not by safeguarding the status quo, but through active adaptability.

His core concept: the resilience principle. "Not bouncing back to the old status quo, but bouncing forward to the new." The "pivoting" – quickly turning to new technologies and markets – is crucial. Stability thinking, which aims to minimise risks and preserve the existing, no longer works in a world of radical disruption.

As evidence, he referred to the Skype effect (European invention, US scaling) and the Nokia effect: Europe was leading in the GSM standard but missed the leap to smartphones. For Germany, the comparative advantage lies not in individual products but in engineering culture and social partnership – that is, in skills transferable to new contexts.

AI Strategy: Securing Value Creation in the Application Layer

Brunnermeier became specific regarding artificial intelligence. European Foundation Models are hardly feasible given the lack of capital markets – and they are not necessary. What matters is shifting value creation to the application layer, where Europe is already strong with industrial expertise, SAP, and databases.

To this end, he proposed a commodification strategy: "If LLMs [Large Language Models] are allowed to be used in the public sector, they must be standardised so that switching between models is simple." Low switching costs between providers would prevent monopoly power and move value creation to areas where Europe is competitive. Additionally, he called for data cooperatives for small and medium-sized enterprises, enabling them to jointly utilise Germany's industrial data treasures.

Labour Market, Finance, Defence

Regarding the labour market, Brunnermeier criticised the German tendency to protect jobs rather than workers. Transferable social insurance benefits could facilitate transitions and lead to better productivity.

On the global financial architecture, he warned against the "weaponisation" of Fed swap lines – reciprocal emergency liquidity lines between the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. The ECB relies on these lines when European banks face dollar shortages – and Trump could use them as leverage.

For defence, he advocated manufacturing agility instead of stockpiling: Finland's model of 3D drone production exemplifies how military resilience can look amidst technological disruption.

Video

If you would like to hear the full keynote or watch it in its entirety, simply click on this video: