To ensure that hydrogen can fulfil its key role in achieving a climate-neutral economy, supply, demand, infrastructure, and regulation must be significantly better coordinated. This is the conclusion of a new study by r2b energy Consulting, commissioned by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The study analyses the entire hydrogen value chain, identifies major obstacles, and provides specific recommendations for a course correction. It combines scientific analyses with practical experience from the network of Chambers of Industry and Commerce (IHK) and Foreign Trade Chambers.

No investments without reliable framework conditions

© DIHK / Marko Priske

"Hydrogen remains indispensable for the climate-neutral transformation of industry and energy systems," explains Sebastian Bolay, Head of Energy, Environment, and Industry at the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry. "At the same time, the scale-up risks falling short of political expectations. This is not due to a single bottleneck but rather a combination of high costs, regulatory uncertainties, insufficient infrastructure, unclear demand perspectives, and a lack of investment security. Many companies are eager to invest but require reliable framework conditions to do so."

Both Germany and Europe are at critical junctures for scaling up hydrogen. The German government is set to update its National Hydrogen Strategy, while the EU is reviewing criteria for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), which are key to green hydrogen production. "Both present an opportunity to align policy frameworks better with the realities businesses face," adds Bolay.

Three key areas of action

The study offers key recommendations on achieving a successful development path for scaling up hydrogen by 2040 and outlines the necessary framework conditions. Three main areas of action emerge from the study: 

• Initially, the momentum of projects and market dynamics built up so far must be secured until 2030. According to the study, this includes pragmatic RFNBO rules, a reliable network charge framework for electrolysers, a practical book-and-claim solution, and early safeguarding of hydrogen storage as strategic infrastructure.
• By 2035, the transition to a scaling market must succeed: This requires accelerated development of distribution networks, better risk mitigation, and increased investment security.
• By 2040, the aim is to solidify a consistent target system. This should transparently define, using a comprehensible roadmap and independent monitoring, the role hydrogen should play in the energy system, the applications it should prioritise, and how it can gradually shift from relying on subsidies to operating within a market-driven system.

"The study demonstrates that a successful hydrogen scale-up is achievable. However, it requires more pragmatism, coordination, and reliability," says Bolay. "It is now crucial for policymakers to enable a realistic and sustainable development path. Only then can businesses make the necessary investments and allow hydrogen to contribute to competitiveness, energy security, and climate neutrality in a sustainable manner."

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(only available in German)