The erratic U.S. trade policy is altering the strategies of German companies worldwide. While many firms with production locations in the U.S. are expanding their local presence after the initial shock, companies exporting from abroad to the U.S. are predominantly intensifying their search for new markets. This is shown by the USA special analysis of the AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026.

"The US tariff policy has long acted as a global diversion program for investments and trade flows," says DIHK’s Head of Foreign Trade, Volker Treier. "Companies are looking for stability and predictability. Where these are lacking, markets are being reassessed, supply chains adjusted, and investments relocated."

For the economic development in the U.S., German companies operating locally expect a downturn. The ongoing Middle East crisis and existing trade policy distortions keep the economic environment very tense. However, among the majority (46%) of German companies on site, optimism for business is gradually returning. Investment intentions among German companies in the USA are also increasing: 41% want to boost their capital expenditure. Despite significant improvements, both values remain below their long-term average. Furthermore, trade barriers are now regarded as the greatest business risk for German enterprises in the States.

AHK companies in the U.S. are responding to higher import costs primarily with price increases (68%) and enhanced localization of supply chains and production (40%). Although companies already present on-site benefit from their advantageous position in the U.S. market, 15% of them still aim to diversify their sales markets to counter potential revenue losses.

At the same time, the bureaucratic burden for German companies in the U.S. has significantly increased. 59% report additional strain due to customs procedures, proof of origin requirements, and compliance mandates. Nine percent have already hired extra staff or engaged external consultants to manage these processes. "The U.S. regularly accuses Europe of overregulation – but with its tariff policies, it’s massively raising bureaucracy itself," Treier observes. "For internationally active companies, trade is becoming less predictable, more labor-intensive, costlier, and prone to errors."

The impacts stretch far beyond the United States. Globally, over half of German companies involved in the U.S. market have already taken measures in reaction to the American trade policies. 14% are reducing their U.S. activities, 15% are exploring new markets, while another 18% are focusing more on established or domestic markets. This trend is particularly pronounced in German companies operating in China, South Africa, and parts of Asia. In contrast, countries with close trade agreements with the U.S. – such as Mexico or Argentina – are partially benefiting from new business opportunities. "Overall, the U.S. market is becoming less attractive for German companies due to trade policies – especially for exporters," says Treier. "But this also applies to companies on-site reliant on international supply chains."

The foundation of this special analysis is the AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026, which incorporates feedback from over 4,500 German member companies worldwide. The German Chambers of Commerce Abroad have a total of around 48,000 member companies, including over 2,000 in the USA.

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The complete survey is available for download here:

AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026 (PDF, 2 MB)

International_AHK WBO Frühjahr 2026 Sonderauswertung USA (PDF, 943 KB) (only available in German)