23rd February 2026 - Despite geopolitical tensions and increasing trade policy risks, the Asia-Pacific region continues to be a beacon of hope for the German economy. This is reflected in the special analysis of the Asia-Pacific Business Outlook for Year-End 2025 conducted by the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHKs), which surveyed around 800 German companies in the region. While sentiment and expectations in Greater China remain subdued, business prospects in Asia-Pacific excluding Greater China have slightly improved.

"Asia-Pacific remains a beacon of hope for the German economy, despite all challenges," states Volker Treier, Chief Executive of Foreign Trade at the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK). "Many companies are looking to the future with slightly more optimism – even though the environment remains volatile."

Companies assess their situation and outlook particularly positively in Sri Lanka, New Zealand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. India exhibits a stable yet slightly weaker development. Japan has seen moderate recovery. Comparatively, business conditions in parts of the region remain subdued. In South Korea, framework conditions continue to deteriorate, while Singapore dips into the negative for the first time in years.

In Greater China, both the current business situation and expectations for the coming months remain under pressure. "Geopolitical tensions, punitive tariffs, and increasing trade barriers have severely impacted planning stability," emphasises Treier. "Export controls and restrictions on critical raw materials such as rare earth elements are clear trade policy warning signs – with noticeable consequences for German companies in and trading with China." Nonetheless, one countertrend stands out: despite subdued sentiment, investment intentions in the People's Republic of China show a significant increase. Companies aim to maintain competitiveness despite difficult market conditions by securing access to local innovation and technology hubs. Moreover, attractive growth and sales prospects persist.

Across all subregions, demand remains the greatest business risk for companies. Economic expectations in Asia-Pacific overall are better than the global average; however, this does not apply to Greater China, where companies increasingly expect deterioration. Investment plans within the region remain stable overall, with significant regional differences.

An additional burden rests on US trade policy. Companies across Asia-Pacific report significantly negative impacts on their business – particularly in Greater China, but also in countries like South Korea, New Zealand, and Singapore. Tariffs, export controls, and industry policy directives considerably influence strategic decisions.

"Companies are addressing this by diversifying," notes Treier. "Supply chains are being reassessed, and sales markets broadened. We clearly see companies actively seeking alternatives within Asia – and increasingly finding them."

The survey results can be downloaded here: Download PDF (only available in German)