The Turnberry Deal initially provides "a certain period of planning security" for the German economy until the end of 2029, said Treier in the Deutschlandfunk interview. This breather must "be used to conclude real negotiations and real free trade agreements with the USA." The agreement "initially means some relief – no escalation in the tariff dispute with the USA, but not much more." Treier acknowledged the deal's asymmetrical nature. "But with this US administration, nothing else was possible at the moment." Hence, it was better than the alternative: a further uncontrolled escalation of tariffs.

Impulse for More Diversification

The DIHK's Chief of Foreign Trade also saw positives in the situation: "Donald Trump encourages us to truly diversify," he stated. Without the US President, the recently negotiated free trade agreements with India, Indonesia, or Australia would not have come about. These are "a proper way forward, something we should have done anyway, but Europe and Germany have been far too hesitant for a long time." Treier also praised the "Middle Powers Alliance" called for by the Canadian Prime Minister in Davos as a good idea.

The situation remains challenging. Particularly against the backdrop of geopolitical rivalries, it is important to work on one's own competitiveness. "The federal government has set a precedent with its reform package." The EU is supporting these efforts through bureaucracy reduction and – equally important – new agreements with other countries. "We must now consistently continue this path," urged the DIHK's Chief of Foreign Trade.

Meanwhile, the German economy is highly exposed to international trade. "The USA is our most important sales market," said Treier. "Of course, we are particularly affected by the current US administration pushing ahead with this tariff spiral. The deal gives us a breather." However, exports to China and overall shipments have also declined, he noted. German companies are therefore seeking other sales markets within and outside Europe. Agreements like those with the Mercosur countries in Latin America can compensate somewhat but "are far from being a good overall deal."

Trade Surplus Means Capital Export

The criticism from the USA about Germany's trade surplus must continually be addressed: "A trade surplus is also a capital export," explained DIHK's Chief of Foreign Trade. "An incredible number of German companies are investing in the United States and creating jobs there. Therefore, we should not engage in these debates at all."

Nonetheless, the fundamental point remains: "We must try to strengthen connections with other global partners," Treier concluded. "Not a day goes by without delegations from many countries visiting the House of German Business, asking for investments from German SMEs in their countries. We need robust relationships with them, and these are the free trade agreements."

The complete interview from July 22, 2026, is available to listen to on the Deutschlandfunk website (only available in German).