Energy

• Energy supply: In the short term, no physical supply bottlenecks are expected in Germany as oil and gas (including LNG) are mainly imported from the USA, Norway, the Netherlands, Libya, and Kazakhstan. Only 6.1 per cent of German crude oil imports in 2025 come from the Middle East, and LNG is not imported from the region at all. The key effects arise primarily from price increases on global energy and commodity markets and possible redirection impacts.
  
• Industrial dependency: In Germany, oil and gas account for around 40 per cent of industrial energy consumption, particularly for process heat. Rising energy prices directly impact industrial production costs.
  
• Indirect impact on electricity prices: As gas-fired power plants usually set wholesale electricity prices, rising gas prices may result in higher electricity costs.
  
• Gas storage filling: Depending on the further development, the situation could negatively affect the necessary filling of gas storage facilities. Current prices contradict economies of scale, potentially leading to higher general gas price levels and/or the need for government intervention.

Bolay: Great caution with state interventions

Sebastian Bolay, DIHK Head of Division for Energy, Environment, Industry, commented on the situation on March 2 as follows:
 

© DIHK / Jens Schicke

"We are watching the sharp increase in oil and gas prices on the world market with great concern. In particular, the increase in oil prices is directly impacting end users. High fuel prices at the pump are placing a heavy financial burden on small and medium-sized companies, such as those in trade, transport or logistics.

Nevertheless, we are skeptical about state interventions. The costs of short-term subsidies ultimately fall on businesses and consumers through taxes and levies. Additionally, the release of oil reserves should be used with caution and really as a last resort.

With regard to gas prices, it remains to be seen how long the crisis will last. Since gas supplies to end users are largely secured through long-term contracts and suppliers procure natural gas well in advance, sometimes years ahead, we expect manageable impacts on businesses overall.

However, if the crisis persists, new contracts will become significantly more expensive and the imminent refilling of largely empty gas storage facilities could lead to high costs. If this can only be achieved at significantly higher expenses, permanently high gas prices may also persist in the coming winter. This would further weaken the competitiveness of many energy-intensive businesses."

Raw Materials

The Persian Gulf is also a crucial supplier of numerous critical raw materials and intermediates. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic since 2 March significantly threatens global supply chains, potentially leading to new price spikes and bottlenecks for the world economy. German companies are facing substantial challenges and heightened uncertainties.

• Helium: Qatar exports around 40 per cent of the world's helium production. The EU, alongside China and Southeast Asia, counts among the major markets and imports nearly 40 per cent of its helium from Qatar.
  
  Helium is an essential raw material for the semiconductor industry, cryotechnology (low-temperature technology), and aviation and is obtained from natural gas. Production needs to be scaled back due to the interruption in Qatar's LNG production. Despite existing recycling structures, the EU would need to secure additional sources in the event of a prolonged conflict. The only European contribution to its helium supply amounts to approximately 8 per cent. Potential alternatives, such as Algeria, China, or the USA, would need to build new capacities.
• Sulphur: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates rank among the world's largest sulphur producers, with approximately one-fourth of global production coming from the region.
  
  In the medium term, further disruptions are expected for worldwide battery production as sulphur is required not only for fertilisers, crucial for food security, but also plays a significant role in refining nickel and battery raw materials. Particularly Indonesia – responsible for nearly two-thirds of global nickel production – relies heavily (around 75 per cent) on sulphur imports from the Gulf region.
• Aluminium: In 2025, Persian Gulf nations produced nearly 7 million tonnes of primary aluminium, accounting for approximately 9 per cent of global production. The EU sourced around 18 per cent of its primary aluminium imports from the Gulf that year.
  
  Many European businesses are already experiencing higher aluminium prices triggered by transport delays and the announced controlled reduction in aluminium production in the region. Energy uncertainties contribute to further bottlenecks in processing capacities, affecting primary export ventures to Europe, such as Mozambique.
• Plastics: The Gulf states are central suppliers of many basic raw materials for plastic manufacturing, such as ethylene and other polymers, which are sent to Asia for further processing. Asia accounts for over 50 per cent of global plastics production and remains a key export hub. German businesses are reporting initial shortages, particularly in plastics and chemical precursors.

Logistics and Trade Risks

• Imperative of the Strait of Hormuz for Germany: Only 0.4% of total German imports originate from countries heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. Less than 1% of German imports traverse the Strait directly. Consequently, Germany's direct dependency is minimal.
  
• Goods affected by a blockade: Essentially goods significant for industrial processes, including crude oil and petroleum products, unalloyed aluminium, and additional raw materials.
  
• Importance of the Red Sea Route for Germany: Approximately 10% of Germany's foreign trade is transported through the Suez Canal, and around 9% through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Implications for Corporate Entities

Immediate corporate impacts are primarily seen in personnel security, elevated energy and electricity costs, and disruptions within global supply chains, leading to price increases and shortages.

Personnel:

Travel uncertainties for employees and assignments.

Energy and electricity prices:

Volatile energy prices and escalating costs: Gas and gasoline prices have risen significantly in the short term. However, due to longer-term contractual safeguards in gas provision, broad impacts remain limited for now.

The same applies to electricity price trends. On highly productive renewable energy days, the commonly used spot market contracts are cushioned by renewable energies.

Logistics:

Delays in maritime and air transport: Longer import and export delivery times resulting from routes diverted around Africa. Possible container handling delays at ports when ships arrive later than expected, or additional freight capacities fail to retain planned schedules.'Higher costs, including elevated freight rates, insurance premiums (war risk insurance), and extra fuel surcharges for alternate African routes.'

Example: Germany depends significantly on solar technology and storage systems imported from Asia primarily via China. Many suppliers have already adopted longer sea routes around the Cape of Good Hope.
The situation affects transport to Gulf ports like UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain with viable alternatives limiting maritime distribution capabilities compared to redirecting volumes east-west pipelines or land routes redirecting Red Sea infrastructure constraints hinder regional industrial importing sectors elongating longer costs impacting freight terms logistics.

Addition price augmentations bottlenecks constrained redirected limited fixed reduced amended routes adjusting lower competing reason trades amplified transit factors tested reviewed determining contracts ongoing