Energy and Raw Materials: Why the Hormuz Crisis Affects Germany Too

The consequences of the crisis in the Persian Gulf extend far beyond the region. Although Germany's energy supply is secure in the short term, rising energy prices, risks to gas supply, and potential shortages of critical raw materials such as helium, aluminium, and plastics are putting increased pressure on the German economy and its supply chains.

Germany is today much more diversified in oil and gas supplies than it was just a few years ago. Nevertheless, the German economy remains vulnerable to geopolitical crises in the Persian Gulf. The impacts manifest primarily through rising global market prices, higher electricity costs, and disrupted supply chains. Energy-intensive industries, as well as companies reliant on critical raw materials and chemical precursors from the Gulf region, are particularly affected. Prices are already increasing, while risks to the production and supply of essential materials are rising.

Energy Supply

Short-term physical supply shortages are not expected in Germany, as oil and gas (including LNG) are predominantly sourced from the USA, Norway, the Netherlands, Libya, and Kazakhstan. Only 6.1 percent of German crude oil imports in 2025 will come from the Middle East, and no LNG is directly imported from the region. The main effects instead stem from price increases in global energy and raw material markets and potential redirection effects. Markets are highly volatile. Businesses are particularly concerned about the period after the expiration of existing supply contracts, which often occurs in autumn.

Industrial Dependency

Oil and gas account for approximately 40 percent of Germany's industrial energy consumption, particularly for process heat. Rising energy prices directly affect industrial production costs.

Indirect Impact on Electricity Prices

Gas-fired power plants generally set electricity production prices, so increasing gas prices lead to higher wholesale electricity prices.

Filling Gas Storage Facilities

Current high prices counteract market-based filling of storage facilities; they can lead to generally higher gas price levels and/or necessitate state intervention. According to the Association of Gas Storage Operators (INES), current market conditions risk preventing sufficient refilling of storage facilities. During a very cold winter, gas supply security could become strained, and gas could run out. Industrial companies might then face shutdowns.

Raw Materials

The Persian Gulf region also serves as a vital supplier of numerous critical raw materials and intermediate products. The de facto blockage of the Strait of Hormuz for maritime traffic since 02.03.2026 significantly threatens global supply chains, posing risks of new price peaks and shortages for the world economy. German businesses face significant challenges and heightened uncertainties in this context.