04.11.2026 - Even before the US midterms, a significant turnaround in sentiment among German companies in the United States became apparent. After intense tariff turbulence in recent months, they assess their US business significantly better than in the spring and intend to increase investments and hire more staff. However, this improved mood comes with a caveat: the unpredictable US trade policy and persistent trade barriers continue to pose significant challenges for companies on the ground. 

This is highlighted in a recent survey conducted by the DIHK and the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHKs) among German companies in the US, carried out in October, ahead of the US midterms. 

© DIHK / Christoph Soeder

The new congressional majorities are unlikely to change this situation much initially. "The Congress changes its colour, but the authority over trade policy remains in the White House. Hence, the situation for our companies remains uncertain. They had to repeatedly adapt to new rules of the game and have proven that they can operate successfully even under challenging conditions," says DIHK Chief Executive Officer Helena Melnikov. 

US Business: Sentiment turns significantly positive 

The figures collected in October indicate a remarkable shift in sentiment: Almost two-thirds (64 percent) of the surveyed German companies in the US rate their current business situation as positive, with only five percent rating it negatively. In the spring, the evaluation was noticeably more restrained. Optimism about the future is also pronounced: 59 percent expect better business within the next 12 months, compared to just 5 percent anticipating a decline. 

This optimism is also driven by the robust US economy. 39 percent of companies expect the economic situation in the US to improve. The balance between positive and negative expectations has risen from minus six points in the spring to plus 29, marking the first time since Trump's re-election that it significantly exceeds the long-term average. 

More optimism, but tariff disputes remain acute 

The Turnberry deal has somewhat limited the trade policy zigzag and created more predictability. However, from the perspective of German companies, increased tariffs and trade barriers remain a burden. Over half of the companies (51 percent) see the economic policy framework conditions as a significant business risk. Three years ago, this figure was only 34 percent. Almost half of the companies (47 percent) cite trade barriers as a risk - almost four times as many as in 2023. "Business is thriving - not because of the tariffs, but in spite of them," says Melnikov. "Now, the US should finally fully implement the tariff agreements made with the EU, instead of calling the deal into question with new tariff threats. Companies need reliable rules instead of constant trade policy surprises." 

US trade policy drives local investments – those who stay, adapt 

The extent to which companies had already adapted to the changing conditions before the midterms is reflected in their investment and personnel plans: 41 percent intend to increase their investments in the US in the next 12 months, and 48 percent plan to hire additional staff. At the same time, nearly a third of companies (29 percent) plan to shift investments specifically to the US in response to US trade policies. More than a quarter (27 percent) are restructuring their supply chains to rely more heavily on American suppliers. German companies are moving closer to their customers and increasing local production. For Germany as a location, this is a warning sign: "What is invested in the US might be missing here," warns Melnikov. However, withdrawing from the US market is not an option for the surveyed companies. Not a single one plans to leave the US, and only two percent intend to scale back their US operations. 

Germany must become more attractive itself 

For Melnikov, this results in a clear mandate to German and European policymakers. The US remains one of the most important markets for German companies. At the same time, Europe must diversify its trade relationships, and Germany must become more competitive internationally. "To prevent more investments from crossing the Atlantic, we need to create better conditions domestically. High energy and labour costs, bureaucracy, and lengthy approval processes make Germany less attractive for investments. This is something we can and must address ourselves. One thing is clear: trade policy decisions are made in Washington. Whether Germany can keep up as an investment location depends primarily on our own actions." 

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Survey Information: The AHK Regional Business Outlook USA is based on the regular DIHK survey of member companies of the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHKs). The survey conducted between 5 and 23 October 2026 involved 99 companies in the US. Globally, close to 3,500 company responses contributed to the AHK World Business Outlook Autumn 2026, which will be officially released on 17 November.