In anticipation of the AHK World Business Outlook Autumn 2026, the DIHK, as in spring 2026, has separately evaluated the survey results for the USA. According to the findings, the sentiment of German companies engaged in the United States improved significantly in Autumn 2026. Factors contributing to this include the robust US economy, the full implementation of the Turnberry Deal, and reduced tariffs.

At the same time, the trade policy environment remains uncertain: ongoing tariff investigations and geopolitical conflicts can again change the framework conditions. Companies are responding to this not only with short-term measures but are increasingly aligning supply chains, sales, and investments in the USA. Thus, the survey indicates both a recovery of expectations and a structural adaptation to altered trade conditions.

"Our companies have repeatedly had to adapt to new rules of the game and have proven that they can operate successfully even under challenging conditions."

The key results

Economic expectations

Despite global geopolitical tensions and high inflation in the USA, the economic expectations of German companies in the USA have brightened sharply compared to spring: 39 per cent expect an improvement in the economic situation over the next twelve months, while 10 per cent expect a deterioration. The balance thus rises significantly from minus six to 29 points and is, for the first time since Donald Trump's renewed presidency, noticeably above the long-term average of 19 points.

Business expectations

German companies in the United States are also much more optimistic about the future: 59 per cent expect an improvement in their business development over the next twelve months, while only five per cent foresee a deterioration. The balance rises significantly from 31 to 54 points. Thus, business confidence exceeds the long-term average of 45 points.

Current business environment

The business situation of German companies in the USA has improved significantly. 64 per cent of respondents rate their business situation as good, while only five per cent rate it as bad. The balance of good and bad ratings rises significantly compared to the previous survey from 31 to 59 points, well above the long-term average of 51 points.

Investment plans

The investment intentions of German companies in the USA remain expansive. 41 per cent plan to increase investments over the next twelve months, while 16 per cent intend to reduce capital expenditure. The resulting balance rises slightly from 23 to 25 points, just above the long-term average of 24 points.

Employment plans

Employment intentions are also brightening. 48 per cent of companies plan to increase their workforce in the next twelve months, 12 per cent expect layoffs. The balance improves from 25 to 36 points, slightly above the long-term average of 35 points.

Business risks

Despite growing optimism, the economic policy conditions are still perceived as a business risk by 51 per cent of respondents, ranking top of the list of concerns. Thanks to the relative easing of the tariff conflict, only 47 per cent of companies see trade barriers as a burden, a clear decline compared to the previous survey, but still the second most frequently named risk for German companies in the USA. Ranked three to five are skill shortages (39 per cent), demand (36 per cent), and supply chain disruptions (35 per cent).

Effects of US trade policy

The respondents are optimising their US market position in response to US trade policy. Measures include applying for repayment of the IEEPA tariffs declared inadmissible (39 per cent), price increases due to tariff costs (39 per cent). The growing focus on the US market is evident from the relocation of investments to the USA (29 per cent), localisation of supply chains (27 per cent), but also a stronger focus on the US sales market (26 per cent). Only 2 per cent of the companies plan to reduce their US business, none of the respondents is planning to exit the US market.

Download

The complete survey results are available for download here: