Expectations in foreign trade are gradually improving, though they remain net-negative. Sixty-nine percent of the 2,400 internationally active companies surveyed in February 2026 reported a rise in trade barriers – an all-time high. The U.S. trade tariffs, newly imposed export controls, and complex European regulations are notable challenges to Germany's export-oriented sector. However, markets like India and certain parts of Latin America show promising opportunities.
Key Results from the Survey
- Risk Factor: Trade Barriers:
- 69 per cent of companies report an increase in trade barriers, a record high in the history of the survey.
- 66 per cent of these businesses are affected by higher tariffs, especially in trade with the USA
- Risk Factor: Internal Market Regulation:
- 83 per cent of respondents consider domestic hurdles from Germany and the EU as a strain on their foreign trade
- Markets::
- US Market: Business situation and expectations have turned deeply negative (current situation balance: minus 23 points, future outlook: minus 27 points)
- India and Latin America: positive business prospects, with India's expectation balance reaching plus 17 points
Trade barriers on the rise
The survey reveals that global trade is moving further away from the principle of free, rules-based commerce. Tariffs, export controls, sanctions, local-content requirements, and regulatory measures within the EU negatively impact supply chains, investments, and market access. According to the survey, 69% of businesses report an increase in trade barriers—an all-time high and an 11 percentage-point increase compared to last year.
"Free global trade is showing ever deeper cracks"
Dr. Volker Treier
-- Chief of Foreign Trade | Member of the Executive Board
Of particular concern are the impacts of U.S. trade policies. Among the businesses affected by rising trade barriers, 66% cite increased tariffs as a challenge. Of these, 86% identify the U.S. as the main region of concern. Higher tariffs, sector-specific duties, and the insecurity surrounding trade policies have increasingly shifted the perception of the U.S. from a key market to a risk factor, as highlighted in the special analysis of the survey on the U.S.
Aside from tariffs, non-tariff trade barriers also play a critical role. Among affected businesses, 51% report additional local certification requirements, while 37% face heightened safety stipulations. Stricter export control regimes constrain 35%, and 30% report sanctions as unique trade barriers.
Strategic industrial policies are also becoming prominent. Among concerned businesses, 19% report an increase in local-content regulations requiring a certain portion of production value to be created within the local market. This trend is notably prominent in the U.S., China, the Asia-Pacific region, and India.
Challenges originating from the EU and Germany
Trade barriers are not only external; 83% of internationally operating businesses cite challenges stemming from regulations within Germany and the EU. These include rules, administrative requirements, and localized peculiarities that hinder international business operations, despite the EU’s emphasis on reducing trade restrictions.
About 49% of the affected companies report difficulties linked to due diligence and reporting requirements in supply chains, specifically Directive-inspired measures such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive and Germany’s supply chain due diligence law. These regulations affect not just large entities but also small- and medium-sized enterprises acting as suppliers obligated to provide extensive sustainability and supply chain reporting.
Meanwhile, 42% highlight challenges in navigating export authorities and customs procedures. Examples include complex and inconsistent regulations, significant documentation demands, delayed processing times, and country-specific requirements, especially in trade with China.
Additional hurdles include compliance with packaging and waste-related regulations (39%), implementation of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (32%), and new requirements under the EU Deforestation Regulation (28%). These measures introduce considerable administrative burdens such as emissions tracking and extensive IT system integrations.
Business expectations remain negative
While overall expectations for international business activities have slightly improved among German companies, they remain net-negative: 21% anticipate worsening conditions versus 16% predicting improvements. A majority, 63%, foresee no changes, with the net balance improving from minus 8 to minus 5 points year-on-year.
Opportunity regions
The survey highlights numerous regional opportunities, despite varying conditions across markets. Positive dynamics are reported in the Eurozone, where business conditions are favourable, albeit slightly tempered by exchange rate volatility and regulatory burdens. In other European regions, including Switzerland and Norway, conditions remain stable to positive.
China, on the other hand, presents a challenging outlook due to economic slowdown, localisation rules, and new trade barriers. Meanwhile, India continues to rise in prominence – viewed as neutral-to-positive. The EU-India trade agreement is seen as a catalyst for reducing tariffs and strengthening supply chains.
Similarly, South and Central America, along with the Mercosur region, show potential, thanks to recent trade agreements with the EU, which could diversify supply chains and create new sales opportunities to offset historically weak performance.
Methodology
The nationwide survey "Going International 2026" conducted by the DIHK was created with the support of the 79 German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (IHKs) across the country. From 2 to 13 February 2026, 2,400 internationally active companies based in Germany took part in the survey.
Sectors: The responses consist of 55 per cent from industrial companies, 3 per cent from the construction sector, 16 per cent from trade, 13 per cent from service providers, and 13 per cent from others.
Size: Companies with up to 249 employees account for 77 per cent of the responses, 9 per cent of the participating businesses have 250 to 499 employees, 5 per cent have 500 to 999 employees, and 8 per cent have more than 1,000 employees.
Download
The full survey findings are available for download here:
- Relevant in topic:
- International Trade and Market Access
- Key areas:
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- Foreign Trade
- Customs
- CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism)
It has been translated with the assistance of AI.
No guarantee is made as to the accuracy or completeness of the translation.
Released 24.03.2026
Modified 28.09.2026
Ansprechpartnerinnen
Lola Marie Machleid
Director International Economy
Julia Fellinger
Spokesperson
