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About a fifth of global trade in oil and liquefied gas was transported via the Strait of Hormuz before the crisis. The Suez Canal is one of the most critical trade routes between Europe and Asia. In 2023, approximately 12 to 15 percent of global trade was handled through it. However, by 2025, the transport volume had dropped to only about 70 percent of the average transit volume of 2023.

Geopolitical tensions in recent months have again highlighted the vulnerability of these routes. Attacks on merchant ships and transit restrictions lead to supply chain disruptions, rising insurance premiums, and higher transport costs.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait is increasingly a risk factor. The Houthi militia's attacks on international shipping in 2023 and 2024 prompted many shipping companies to reroute their ships around the Cape of Good Hope. The consequences were significantly longer transportation times—often by more than ten days—as well as substantial additional logistics and insurance costs.

The Bab al-Mandab Strait, as one of the most important shipping links worldwide, connects the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The ifo Institute estimated in 2025 that almost 10 percent of German imports came through the Red Sea and thus through the Suez Canal and the Strait to Germany.

The extent of the impact on international supply chains largely depends on the duration and intensity of security policy tensions in the region.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of an LNG shortage due to Europe's heavy reliance on stable global energy trade routes. This underscores the need for diversification of gas imports, accelerated expansion of storage capacities, renewable energies, and alternative routes.

Existing Alternative Routes Gain Importance

The recent developments highlight the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for energy supplies and global trade. As the strait represents the most important access to international markets for many Gulf states, alternative export and transit routes are increasingly coming into focus.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz significantly restricts maritime connectivity for major ports in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq. This also includes the Port of Jebel Ali in Dubai as a crucial transhipment point between Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Energy Exports via Existing Pipelines

Several infrastructure links already exist today that bypass the strait for a portion of energy exports:

• Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea (Capacity: approx. 5–7 million barrels per day) – Dammam–Yanbu
• Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline of the United Arab Emirates to the Gulf of Oman
• Iraq-Turkey Pipeline to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan

These pipelines enhance exporters' flexibility but cannot fully replace the Strait of Hormuz. While these three corridors together offer a theoretical capacity of about 9 million barrels per day, around 20 million barrels per day were transported via the Strait of Hormuz on average.

Alternative Logistics Routes

In addition to energy exports, alternative goods transport corridors are increasingly coming into focus:

• Using Omani deep-water ports Salalah, Duqm, and Sohar as alternative locations
• Expanding port and logistics infrastructure on the eastern coast of the UAE (Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, Dibba, and Al Rughailat) to directly connect to the Gulf of Oman outside the Strait of Hormuz
• Alternative route from Turkey (Port of Mersin) towards the Gulf via Iraq or Syria
• Land bridges between the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea (Jeddah)
• Connections from Saudi Arabia through Egypt to Europe

Increasing risks along established trade routes have prompted Gulf states to invest more heavily in alternative transport routes and new infrastructure projects. The aim is to enhance regional networking, strengthen supply chain resilience, and create new trade corridors between the Gulf region, Europe, and Asia.

For German companies, this results in both additional export opportunities and new business opportunities in the areas of infrastructure, logistics, and industrial equipment.